“Closing on the 4,200 points of Eurostoxx 50 and 15,970 points of Dax 30 would allow us to speak of strength in the short term, but it would not be enough to consider that the downside risks are moving away”, explains Carlos Almarza, Ecotrader advisor .
“The Ibex 35, for its part, remains close to the psychological zone of 9,000 points, at the top of the consolidation phase that it has been developing in recent weeks, on whose overcoming depends that we can attend an approach to 9,300 points”, adds the expert in technical analysis
“Rebounds on the sidelines, we continue to expect falls that could be directed at least towards the 4,070 / 4,030 points of Eurostoxx and the 15,540 / 15,420 points of Dax, whose scope would most likely provoke buyer interest and from where we would already begin to consider taking new positions, ” he concludes the strategist of the investment strategies portal of elEconomista .
Expectation before Jackson Hole
Stock markets are waiting a few hours before the central bankers meeting begins in Jackson Hole.
“Jerome Powell [Fed Chairman] would do well to keep all options open and avoid making a clear statement,” warns Yves Bonzon, Julius Baer’s CIO.
The risk of correction in the stock markets is high with Wall Street at historical highs and Europe, of the year, and any interpretable message about the greater or lesser intensity of the tapering (withdrawal of monetary stimuli) in the United States – its announcement is already taken for granted be it in September, in November, or even this weekend – it could serve as an excuse for a generalized profit collection.
Korea low rates
There has been movement in Asia, where the bears have prevailed in a generalized way in the session after the rebound of China’s technology was exhausted and due to the rise in rates of the Bank of Korea, the first large country that initiates the end of the stimuli monetary.
10% limit on correction
The profits expected by US companies from the European stock markets justify the latest increases and limit a possible correction to around 10%, if the PER ratio is taken into account, which measures the number of times that profits are reflected in the price of the shares – and, where appropriate, of the companies present in the indices as a whole – of the Wall Street benchmark, the S&P 500.
The US selective currently presents a profit multiplier of 22.5 times if the estimates for 2021 are taken into account and 20.5 times if the forecasts for 2022 are taken. When the vaccine began to be listed, the PER was at 20 Sometimes, to what extent this ratio would justify a profit-taking if a message is misinterpreted in Jackson Hole.
Ecotrader’s recommendation: “Wait”
“As long as there is no closer approximation to the July lows that offers us a more attractive return / risk equation , operationally, we would not move too much,” recommends the Ecotrader team of analysts.
“Our recommendation is to wait patiently, especially when the route on Wall Street could already be very limited in the short term to the area of 15,700 / 15,850 points of Nasdaq 100,” says Carlos Almarza, advisor to the premium investment strategy portal.
